The mid-season cut has not been the most popular addition to the Championship Tour from the perspective of either fans nor competitors, but it’s sure set to make the Margaret River Pro pretty damn interesting. This is the final event before a significant chunk of surfers is cut from both the men’s and the women’s CT, meaning that for plenty of these athletes, this is make or break in terms of their 2023 season. There’s plenty on the line at Margie this year, but before we take a look at some of the best chances to take it out, a quick refresher on what went down at the Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach.
The Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
As the oldest running surfing contest in the world, there is plenty of prestige surrounding the Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach. Unfortunately, the waves didn’t quite match up to that prestige this year, continuing what’s been a disappointing year of conditions, and a large part of the tournament took place at Winkipop just next door to Bells itself.
On the men’s side, Ethan Ewing won his just his second Championship Tour event, and the circumstances surrounding it could hardly have been scripted better. Ewing’s mother, who passed away when he was six, won the very same contest exactly 40 years ago in 1983, so when Ewing carved his way to victory – ending the career of Owen Wright along the way – he etched his name into history alongside her.
The Aussie domination was equally evident – in fact more so – in the women’s contest. All four semi-finalists were Australian, but Tyler Wright proved too good for them all. She knocked out Steph Gilmore in the semis with a score of 15.33 before going even better with a 16.00 against Molly Picklum and the yellow jersey, and looked every bit the world title contender which she has been for such a significant portion of her career.
With the win, both Ewing and Wright guaranteed they would avoid the mid-season cut, with Ewing jumping six spots into fourth and Wright moving from fourth into second. But while they’re safe, they’re in the minority; 13 out of 24 spots on the men’s side are still up for grabs while a huge eight of 11 spots still haven’t been decided yet on the women’s, so the vast majority of competitors will have plenty to surf for at Margaret River. Let’s take a look at some of the names most likely to take it out.
Women’s Western Australia Margaret River Pro
Since re-joining the women’s Championship Tour in 2013, the women’s Margaret River Pro has seen a plethora of different winners from all over the world. Carissa Moore went back-to-back in 2013 and 2014, but since then no one has won it on multiple occasions and our winners have hailed from Australia, the USA, France and Brazil. Will that trend continue this year, or will one of our past champs – which includes the likes of Tyler Wright, Tatiana Weston-Webb, Johanne Defay and of course Moore – finally break the run of new winners?
The Favourites
It’s virtually a fait accompli that Carissa Moore and Tyler Wright will head the list of favourites for any given contest at the moment, and that’s no different at this year’s Margaret River Pro. Moore, incidentally, hasn’t been at her best so far this year; after starting the season off with a win at Pipeline she’s failed to make it to the semi-finals at the last three events, a surprise given she barely missed one for years prior. Still, she’s sitting third in the world rankings, and while she hasn’t been at her best, things could easily have been different, particularly at Bells when she surfed very well throughout only to be trundled by eventual winner – Wright – in a tight, high-scoring affair. She’s won twice here, and though the last time she did that was back in 2014, she’s racked up a second and three thirds since, so it’s not as though she’s struggled for form at this break. She’ll break her run of early exits soon enough, and given her past form at Margaret River it may well be over the next week or so.
Wright knocked Moore out of second place at Bells last weekend with a famous win in the very same event at which her brother open hung up his booties. That continued what has, for the most part, been a terrific season for the two-time world champ; aside from an Elimination Round exit at Supertubos, she’s made the semis at all three other events, including a final at Pipe. It was seven years ago that Wright earned her solitary victory at Margaret River, though she did finish second the year after that and has only surfed here twice since. That lack of recent experience at the break might not be ideal, but Wright typically excels in conditions of consequence, and that’s very often what Margaret River delivers. The bigger the better for Wright here, and with solid swell predicted she may very well get conditions to suit.
A third name has at last popped up to vie with Moore and Wright for contest favouritism, and it’s well and truly deserved. Molly Picklum has, four events into the season, proved that she is far from just a flash in the pan. In just her second year, she’s made the quarterfinals at all four events, and made the final at Bells to add her second for the season after she won at Sunset Beach. At the age of just 20, she is a star of the future, though given she’s wearing the yellow jersey nearly halfway through the season we can probably remove ‘of the future’ from that phrase. She’s competed just once on the CT here – that was last year just before she fell victim to the mid-season cut, and though she only made it to the quarters she could easily have gone further. In the Opening Round she beat Steph Gilmore and Lakey Peterson, in the second she beat Tyler Wright with a score of 15.10, before she was knocked out – but just barely – by Courtney Conlogue. She’s quickly put her hand up as one of the world title favourites, and doesn’t appear likely to leave that conversation anytime soon.
The Next Tier
Steph Gilmore appears to be slowly beginning to ramp up this season, with her best performance of the year coming at Bells Beach when she made it through to the semi-final. That bumped her up five spots in the world rankings, but she’s still just barely sitting above the mid-season cut line and will need a good result here to guarantee her place in the second half of the year. Gilmore is a notable absentee from the list of past winners at Margaret River, though she does have a second and three thirds here. It’s certainly not been the wave at which she’s performed best and she doesn’t have the form of the above surfers, but as is always the case, if she turns it on she’s more than capable of winning this contest.
Tatiana Weston-Webb has been there or thereabouts in most contests this year, and though she has been unable to make it to a final she still finds herself in fifth in the world rankings, and barring a catastrophe should avoid the mid-season cut. And while she hasn’t yet made her way into the final two in four efforts this year, this could be a good place for her to start. Weston-Webb finished just ninth here last year, but the year prior she won the contest, while the time before that – in 2019 – she finished second. Add a third place finish in 2016, and she’s got plenty of good form behind her. This is a great opportunity for Weston-Webb to solidify her place in the top five.
The Roughie
Isabella Nicholls was a surprise Margaret River winner last year, claiming her first ever Championship Tour courtesy of an impressive run over the semi-finals and final which saw her score 15.93 and then 12.94 to win both relatively comfortably. That was a bit of a rogue result in a year in which she was knocked out in either the Round of 16 or quarterfinals at every other event, but while that trend continued early this year with three consecutive ninth place finishes, her form turned a corner at Bells. She surfed really well there, scoring in excess of 12.5 in her first three heats before going down 12.83-12.24 against Picklum in the semis. With that confidence-boosting performance combined with her victory here last year, she is a good chance to pull a surprise.
The Verdict
It’s not often that surfers win consecutive events, but Tyler Wright’s tail is well and truly up and with the conditions that are forecast, she appears very well-placed to do exactly that. Big conditions at Margaret River will bring undone plenty of the competitors in this contest, but Wright isn’t one of them. In heaving swell, Wright can make it two from two in the Australian leg of the tour and likely jump into first spot in the world rankings with a win.
Men’s Western Australia Margaret River Pro
The reigning champion, perhaps the best surfer here in the world, and Margaret River local Jack Robinson is a disappointing withdrawal from this event with injury, and his absence means, strangely, there will be just two former winners in the field. John John Florence has won twice here in the past two years while Filipe Toledo saluted in 2021, while other recent winners include the likes of Willian Cardoso, Sebastian Zietz and Adriano de Souza. Those two lead the list of favourites, but there are plenty of others capable of adding their names to the winners’ list.
The Favourites
John John Florence is one of just two male surfers in history to have won the Margaret River Pro twice, the other being Tom Carroll way back in 1986 and 1987. Of course, the event was off the tour for more than two decades since then so there hasn’t been all that much opportunity for others to join that club, but nonetheless it’s a testament to just how good he’s been here. It could easily have been more, too; last year he finished second in this contest after winning the previous two in which he entered, and another runner-up was thrown in back in 2015, too. He hasn’t surfed at near his best so far this year but his semi-final appearance at Bells was his first for the season, and as the best surfer in the world at this break with the potential exception of absentee Jack Robinson, he’s a relatively comfortable favourite to take this one out.
The only other past champion in the field, Filipe Toledo certainly doesn’t have the same kind of pedigree at Margaret River as Florence. In fact, he’s typically struggled; aside from his 2021 win, he’s got a third, a fifth, and four results of ninth or worse. When he did win it though, he looked hard to stop, with a 17.40 in the final securing the victory. It’s no secret that Toledo is a brilliant small-to-medium wave surfer, but isn’t nearly at the same level in heavy conditions, even if he has improved in that regard. The solid swell which is forecast might not suit him, but he’s still capable, and if the later stages end up taking place in smaller conditions he might be the best chance in the field.
Ethan Ewing might not have the experience or success of the aforementioned two names at this break, but he’s got plenty going for him. For starters, he’s the fourth ranked surfer in the world after his performance at Bells Beach last week, and his tail is well and truly up after that victory. He’s only surfed in this contest on two occasions, but while on the first he was knocked out early, last year he was arguably the best surfer here prior to being knocked out by Jack Robinson in the semis. Ewing won his three-man opening heat then scored 17.93 in the Round of 32, 16.43 in the Round of 16, and 15.70 in the quarterfinals before going down 16.27-14.53 in the semis. After finishing third at Bells last year, he looked extremely comfortable on the big walls of Margaret River en route to a third place finish here, too. Having gone a couple of spots better at Bells this year, perhaps he can do the same at Margie.
The Next Tier
Griffin Colapinto has been good albeit unspectacular so far this year, with a finals appearance at Sunset Beach the only finish of note at four events, but consecutive fifth-place finishes heading into this contest enough to have him sitting fifth in the world rankings. That form doesn’t exactly profile like a likely winner at the upcoming contest, but in the past two years he’s surfed really well here. Last year he was knocked out in the quarterfinals, but he lost 17.50-17.16 to Florence, so we can forgive him for that. The year prior he was equally good, scoring 13.94 or more in every heat, and lost in the semis 15.33-15.16 to Jordy Smith. Clearly those results could easily have gone another way, and if he surfs that well here again this year he will put himself in with a legitimate chance at victory.
Few would have expected Joao Chianca to be wearing the yellow jersey four events into the 2023 season; it’s just his second year on tour, and last year he racked up a ninth and five 17ths in his six events. Those finishes, however, were hardly reflective of his form. He was knocked out in close, high-scoring heats with incredible regularity, and the Margaret River Pro was one such example. He won his opening round heat with a 12.43, before going down 13.53-12.84 in the Round of 32 against Italo Ferreira. This year, the impressive scores have remained while the unlucky losses have not, and the result has been a win and two semi-final appearances in four events. In just his second year, Chianca is still underrated, but he’s quickly erasing the number of people unaware of his talents. The Brazilian rarely fails to put up big scores, and if he continues that trend here he is a chance to win it all.
The Roughie
It feels inevitable that Matthew McGillivray will eventually begin to get results reflective of his talent, but that seeming inevitability has not yet come to fruition for the South African. Just twice in his career has McGillivray made it to the semi-final of a Championship Tour event; the first was at Margaret River in 2021, and the second was at Margaret River in 2022. In the first of those he averaged 14.67 per heat, including a 17.33 in the opening round, while last year he was performing similarly before being comprehensively beaten by a rampaging Florence in the semis. An inaugural CT victory for McGillivray has been a long time in the making, but it seems like if ever it’s going to happen, Margaret River is one of the most likely places.
The Verdict
Outside of Florence, there is something of a dearth of obvious favourites for this event; many of the world’s best are either absent or haven’t performed well here in the past, while at the other end of the scale, a number of surfers not typically at the top of the tree have done some of their best surfing here. Florence aside, one of the few who is both one of the world’s best and has surfed well at Margaret River in the past is Ethan Ewing. Add to that the fact that he’s coming off a second career win and is in excellent touch, and there’s plenty of reason to think that he can go back-to-back and sweep the Australian leg of the tour.
