With the mid-season cut now behind us, just 22 men and ten women (plus a wildcard each) remain in the title race. And, as though the World Surf League has a fetish for criticism, their fixturing will now see the Championship Tour head to Kelly Slater’s Surf Ranch for almost certainly its most unpopular event, immediately after their unpopular axing of half the tour midway through the season. But hey, at least we know the conditions will be good, something which can’t be said for most of the previous events thus far this year. With the run to the WSL Finals in Trestles officially about to get underway, let’s take a look at the recently concluded Margaret River Pro and what it meant for the world rankings, before taking a deep dive into the Surf Ranch Pro.
Margaret River Pro
The Margaret River Pro certainly wasn’t the biggest culprit of the year in terms of the aforementioned disappointing conditions thus far in 2023, dishing up some solid swell for the fifth event of the season.
Rarely do Carissa Moore and Tyler Wright not enter an event as favourite, and that proved justified in West Aus, with those two rarely threatened en route to the final. After a host of high scores the final didn’t quite deliver to expectations, but at least it was reasonably close, with Carissa Moore running out an 11.10-9.17 winner.
That result saw those two leap past Molly Picklum into first and second, with Wright set to wear the yellow jersey at the Surf Ranch. Elsewhere, Steph Gilmore and Lakey Peterson were big movers, avoiding the cut courtesy of quarterfinal appearances, while Brisa Hennessy, Sally Fitzgibbons and Courtney Conlogue all fell just short of jumping into the top ten and were cut as a result.
The men’s side saw plenty of high scores throughout the bracket stage, many of them belonging to John John Florence, who reminded everyone why he’s been the best in the business at this break for so long. He was, however, knocked out by a rampant Griffin Colapinto in the semis, with Colapinto subsequently beaten by Gabriel Medina in the final.
After missing half of last season and an indifferent start to this year, that was the three-time world champ’s first CT victory since 2021, when he won not too far away at Rottnest Island. That saw him jump four spots to seventh in the world rankings; further up, Joao Chianca maintained his hold on the yellow jersey, Filipe Toledo leapfrogged Jack Robinson into second, and Colapinto did the same over Ethan Ewing into fourth.
Men’s Surf Ranch Pro
Say what you like about it, but there’s no other CT event like the Surf Ranch Pro. Being different, however, is not enough to get the masses on board, and since joining the tour in 2018 it’s been subjected to plenty of criticism for the repetitiveness of the event and the way it favours certain surfers – with the fact that all three men’s finals have been contested by Filipe Toledo and Gabriel Medina a good example of that. It was removed from the tour last season much to the delight of plenty of WSL fans, but it’s quickly been re-instated this year. As always, we know what it will deliver, and it will probably lack the level of intrigue present with surfing events which take place in the ocean. After the year of conditions we’ve been forced to endure, however, at least we know there’ll be good waves.
The Favourites
Given the way the first three incarnations of this event have panned out, it should come as no surprise to see Filipe Toledo and Gabriel Medina head this list. Toledo, in particular, has plenty going for him. A one-time winner, two-time runner-up at this event, he’s also the reigning world champion and sitting in second in the world rankings. His incredible speed, powerful manoeuvres, ability to take to the air and capacity to do all that far better on clean, medium-sized waves means that the predictable wave at Kelly Slater’s Surf Ranch could hardly be better suited to him. Already he’s been nearly impossible to beat the three times this event has been held, and given that he’s surfed as well as he ever has over the past couple of years there’s no reason to think he won’t once again be going very deep into this contest.
Medina certainly hasn’t had the best couple of years of his career, missing the first half of last season and starting this one relatively slowly – until, that is, he won the Margaret River Pro. That could be the result that re-ignites his career and re-establishes him as arguably the best surfer in the world, and with this event following his victory things could hardly be lining up better for the goofy-footer. He struggled in the final here against Toledo in 2021, but the two prior to that he won with scores of 17.86 and 18.86, numbers which don’t exactly give a whole lot of hope to his opposition. Given how he surfed at Margaret River, he’s every chance of putting up similar numbers throughout this event, and if he does a win will be very much on the cards.
The Next Tier
No one else has ever made a final at this event aside from the above two, so yeah – this is very much the next tier. But that doesn’t mean the likes of Griffin Colapinto can’t win. The boy from San Clemente put himself into the mix as a title contender last year and is so far backing it up in 2023, sitting in fourth place in the world rankings halfway through the season. After a bad start to the season at Pipeline, he’s made two finals at the last four events and the quarters in the other two, and has been as good as anyone not named Gabriel or Felipe at this event. At each of the last two editions of the Surf Ranch Pro he’s finished third, so if it weren’t for those two he could easily have a victory here to his name. They’ll obviously be very tough to beat once again, but expect him to put himself right in the mix.
Unlike Colapinto, Jack Robinson hasn’t ever got very far at Lemoore – he’s only competed there once, in 2021, when he finished third. But today’s version of Jack Robinson is very different to the one we saw a couple of years ago. Last year, he began to work his way into the world title mix, and this year he’s gone a step further, with his start to the year suggesting he can lay legitimate claim to being the best in the world. He compiled a first, second and third in the first three events of the year to streak out to the lead in the world rankings, before a 17th at Bells Beach preceded him having to pull out of his home Margaret River Pro – where, based on past events, he probably would have done pretty damn well. He’s dropped back to third, but now that he’s about to get back in the water he’ll be looking to work his way back to the top. Robinson is terrific in all manner of conditions and has a veritable smorgasbord of surfing weaponry at his disposal, so expect him to do a hell of a lot better this year than he did the first time out at the Surf Ranch.
There are a couple of names who could round out this list and it feels rude to omit current yellow jersey leader Joao Chianca, but…John John. John John Florence has never actually competed at this event, and it’s not one that I imagine he’s particularly fond of – he comes across as more of an ocean guy. Still, he’s also potentially the best surfer of his generation, so it’s probably a safe assumption that with all the time in the world to do whatever he wants on a wave, he’ll do pretty well. He’s not been quite at his best this season and was particularly disappointing in the opening two events in Hawaii, but he’s beginning to gear up and has racked up back to back third place finishes at the last two events. This looks like a great opportunity for him to jump into the top five with a big contest.
The Roughie
There’s having events at your own break, and then there’s having events in your own pool. Kelly Slater will do the latter at the Surf Ranch Pro. At 51 he’s obviously a long way past his best and is generally knocked out in the early stages of most contests – a notable exception being when he won at Pipeline last year – but with this one being held at a location literally called Kelly Slater’s Surf Ranch, we can probably bank on a little bit more competition from the 11-time world champ. He’s done reasonably well in the past here, finishing ninth, fifth and third in his three attempts, all finishes were at the higher end of his finishes in the respective years in which they came. It’s always fun to see Slater randomly do well at this stage of his career/life, and even if it probably will result in even more calls to cull this event if he wins in his own backyard, it would make for an exciting event – and is probably a lot more likely than a big Kelly showing is at every other contest these days.
The Verdict
Without wanting to be boring, there’s really no way to go past Medina or Toledo since them competing in the final is how this event has always ended. It’s a choice in two, and as good as Toledo is surfing, I’ve gotta go with the numbers – of their three finals here, Medina has won two, and that’s enough to tip me over the edge. He also comes into this event on the back of his first win in two seasons, a performance which looked like a return to world title-level Medina, so he’ll likely be tough to beat.
Women’s Surf Ranch Pro
The women’s Surf Ranch Pro has seen a little more diversity in results over its first three years, with three different winners those years in Carissa Moore, Johanne Defay and Lakey Peterson – though the first two of those have also notched up a runners-up as well. Unsurprisingly that means there are less standout favourites than there are on the men’s side, so let’s dive straight in and have a look at who might be in the mix.
The Favourites
Carissa Moore will, as she always does, enter this event as one of, if not the, favourites to take out the event, and it’s easy to see why. In three attempts here she’s won once and finished second another, plus she’s a five-time world champ, the current second ranked surfer in the world and enters the event on the back of a win at Margaret River. That makes it two wins in five events so far this season, and with her track record here she is every chance of making it three from six.
Moore’s most likely competitor for the world title this year and the only woman sitting above her in the world rankings is Tyler Wright, who looks set to be building her best title case since she won for the second time in a row in 2017. Wright finished runner-up in Margaret River to Moore, the second time this year she’s been felled at the final hurdle by the Hawaiian, while she also racked up a win at Bells Beach to make it three finals in five events this year. Injury has kept her out of all three editions of this contest to date, but her penchant for basically any kind of wave and ability to absolutely rip good ones to shreds means that she shouldn’t have any problems adapting to the artificial conditions.
The Next Tier
In just her second year on the Championship Tour, Molly Picklum has established herself as a legitimate WSL Finals contender, and those doubting her credentials are being made to eat the words more with every passing event. She’s already notched up one win this season – at Sunset Beach – as well as a second at Bells, and perhaps more importantly she’s made it through to the quarterfinals at all five events. Those results are enough to have her sitting in third place in the world rankings, and though her lack of experience means that she invariably comes in a little below the names above her in the estimations of most, she’s proved this year that she can’t be underestimated.
Another supremely talented surfer still in the early stages of her career is Caroline Marks, but though she just turned 21 earlier this year, she has a lot more experience than Picklum having first competed on the tour at the age of 13, and competed in a full season at 16. The best season of her career to date came in 2019 at 17 when she finished second, but with it all in front of her she underwent a bit of a regression over the next couple of seasons. Finally, in 2023 she appears to be winding back up to the level she has shown herself to be capable of. She’s coming off a third place at Margaret River and also finished runner-up to Picklum at Sunset Beach, and what’s more has shown a penchant for this event. In three attempts, she’s finished third twice and fifth once, so it would be no surprise to see her go deep again this time around.
At the other end of her career to those two is Steph Gilmore, but though she hasn’t yet made a final this season she’s still a persistent threat, particularly on a wave like this. Gilmore’s style, grace and power has led her to a record eight world titles – the latest of which came in incredible fashion last year – and at the age of 35 she’s still surfed well enough this season to be sitting in sixth halfway through the year. She’s finished fifth in the last two editions of this contest but made the final in 2018, its first year, so she has demonstrated what she’s capable on the wide walls of Lemoore in the past.
The Roughie
Johanne Defay hasn’t had the start to the year she wanted after a career-best effort last season, missing the first three events through injury, being knocked out in the Elimination Round in the fourth and then compiling what is her best result of the season to date – a ninth – at Margaret River. That’s good to have her 18th in the world and well below the cutline, but she was handed a wildcard by the WSL, giving her an outside chance at working her way into the top five. She’ll need to get a wriggle on to do that, but the Surf Ranch is a good place to start. After finishing fifth in 2018 she finished second in 2019 and then won it in 2021, so if ever she was going to kickstart her season, this week looks like the time.
The Verdict
Tyler Wright has been surfing brilliantly well this year, and though it was a similar story last year before injury felled her late in the season, she does appear to be extremely well-poised to go close to winning a third world title and her first in six years. She’ll wear the yellow jersey at the Surf Ranch, and following consecutive finals appearances, can win for the first time here.
