Just one event remains on the Championship Tour, but the top five remain far from settled on both the women’s and, in particular the men’s side. The Corona Open J-Bay didn’t result in too many drastic changes in the standings, but a couple of major moves were made by some key competitors, so let’s take a look at how that went down before diving into the final event of the season; the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro.
Corona Open J-Bay
J-Bay delivered some quintessential conditions in a season in which such waves have been few and far between, and though that, unfortunately, didn’t remain through until Finals Day, there was still some highly entertaining viewing going on throughout the course of the event.
On the men’s side, big scores were aplenty, with heat scores in excess of 16 not at all uncommon. One of the main culprits of such scores was Filipe Toledo, who managed a 17.56 in the Round of 16, 16.33 in the quarterfinals and a 15.33 in the semis to make his way into the final, where he met an in-form Ethan Ewing, who also happened to be the reigning champ. By that stage, conditions had eased to a little over head high, and in such surf there is no one in the world better than Toledo. It showed, and he cruised to an easy victory with a huge 18.76 heat score.
With that win, he all but assured himself of the number one seed heading to Trestles, while Ewing jumped over Griffin Colapinto into second. Further down, Gabriel Medina moved closer to Yago Dora, with all three of he, John John Florence and Jack Robinson looking to jump into fifth place in Tahiti to secure a spot at Trestles.
Scores weren’t quite as hefty on the women’s side but there were still plenty of big numbers, particularly from big names like Carissa Moore, Tyler Wright and Steph Gilmore. But it was Lakey Peterson who worked her way past first Caroline Marks and then Wright to take on Molly Picklum – who was coming off a couple of tight heat wins – in the final. And in her most clutch performance of the year, she knocked off her prodigious young opponent 14.77-13.5 to secure her first win and jump from eighth to sixth.
She’s now right in the mix to leap past Caitlin Simmers for the only remaining spot in the top five. Steph Gilmore is the primary other hope outside the top five, while a poor showing for Tatiana Weston-Webb means she’ll need a miracle in Tahiti to qualify. At the top, each of Moore, Wright, Marks and Picklum remained where they were in the top four.
Men’s SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro
The Tahito Pro has been a feature of the men’s tour every year since it was first held way back in 1999 with the exception of the two recent Covid-affected years, and in that time has seen a host of stars salute. Mark Occhilupo was the first, before Kelly Slater won his first of five at the turn of the century. More recently, Miguel Pupo won it last year, Owen Wright in 2019, while Gabriel Medina has taken it out twice, and he’ll once again lead the charge as one of the favourites this year as he attempts to sneak into the WSL Finals at the final possible moment. Making this year’s edition even more fun than usual is that many of the best barrel-riders in the world also happen to be sitting just on the precipice of the top five, so the prospect of some hot competition for that fifth and final spot at Trestles should be heated.
The Favourites
Gabriel Medina hasn’t been near his best this year, with one victory and only one other appearance in the semi-finals in nine events. Despite that, he finds himself just barely outside the top five, and with an event he’s shown an affinity for in the past to round out the season he’ll be backing himself to barrel his way to Trestles. Medina has been unequivocally the best surfer at Teahupo’o over the last few years; he didn’t compete there last year, but in the six events prior, he won twice, finished second three times and third the other time. That is some record, and it’s backed up by the other heaving left-hand barrel on tour – Pipe – where he’s made the final in five of his last eight appearances. He may not be the Medina of old at the moment, but if ever he’s going to find that form it’s in Tahiti.
In a very similar situation to Medina is John John Florence. One of the greatest surfers of his generation, Florence is yet to make a final this season and finds himself battling to make it to Trestles as a result. But he’s far from out of it; three semi-finals appearances mean he’s sitting just behind Medina in seventh, and is a live chance to steal Yago Dora’s spot in the top five. Florence, as we all know, grew up surfing Pipeline and is perhaps the best surfer to ever grace that wave, and it’s no surprise that translates to Teahupo’o. Unfortunately, injury has meant he hasn’t surfed the last three editions of this event, but the six times he has competed in this event he’s made the semi-finals in three of them and the quarters in two others. This would be a pretty handy time for his first ever win here.
The Next Tier
Rounding out the list of potential title contenders who find themselves right on the edge of the top five is Jack Robinson, who was the best surfer in the world by some margin early in the season and has since fallen off a cliff. At J-Bay, he finally showed some semblance of form with a quarterfinal appearance, the first time he’d past the Elimination Round since the third event of the season. With a better result than Florence, Medina and Yago Dora here, he could still jump into the top five, and his ability in the pit means that’s not beyond the realms of possibility. His history here is nothing to write home about – last year was the first time he competed in this event and he was knocked out in the Round of 16, but that doesn’t do much to explain how he surfed. In the Opening Round, he scored 16.26 in a three-man heat, more than his two opponents combined. In the Round of 16 he scored 17.60, but was unfortunately bettered by compatriot Nathan Hedge’s 18.30. Similar scores this time around will have him right in the mix.
A bit higher up the world rankings is Filipe Toledo, but he’s in basically the reverse situation to the above three names; he’s the number one ranked surfer in the world by some margin, has won two of the last three events and three in total this year, and is the reigning world champion – but he flat out sucks on this wave. His inability to surf big, heaving barrels is no secret, and it’s highlighted by his past performance here; in seven attempts he’s finished third once, 9th twice, 17th once and 25th three times. That doesn’t bode particularly well for his chances, but in good news for Filipe the forecast is not necessarily looking great for huge Teahupo’o. A mid-size swell is due during the mid-point of the window which still has some variation in predicted size, and he’ll be crossing his fingers it’s as small as can be. It’s still hard to see him winning, but he’s as good as he’s ever been so if conditions are small, maybe he can turn his history no this wave on its head.
Sitting immediately behind Toledo in second and one of just two surfers who could mathematically steal his number one spot before Trestles is Ethan Ewing. Outside of his first year, when he didn’t make it past 13th at any event, Ewing has surfed here just once and didn’t get far, nor has he done much at Pipe, but his scores here last year were pretty solid. In the Elimination Round he knocked out renowned tube rider Michel Bourez with a score of 14.00, before being knocked out in the Round of 16 despite scoring 15.17. He’s improved out of sight over the last couple of years and certainly has some ability in these kinds of waves, and with two finals behind him in the last two events he enters the Tahiti Pro in some pretty handy form.
The other man with any chance of taking Toledo’s yellow jersey is Griffin Colapinto, who is just marginally behind Ewing in third. He was top two for a large portion of this season, but two consecutive poor showings have seen him drop to third, and he’ll be pretty keen to turn that around ahead of the WSL Finals. He’s surfed this event three times and been knocked out in the Round of 16 each of the last two times after an early exit in his first appearance, but he too was knocked out despite a solid score, going down 14.94-14.63 to Yago Dora. He’s got a bit to do to beat the likes of Medina and Florence on this wave, but he’s one of the best in the world and won’t take a backwards step on the jagged reef of Teahupo’o.
The Verdict
Though it hasn’t been his year to date, it’s really hard to go past Medina. He’s been so dominant here over his career, while most of those above him in the rankings haven’t exactly proven themselves to be equally comfortable in left-handed barrels. A win for Medina will mean that he will definitely pass Yago Dora and jump into the top five – and potentially Joao Chianca too – and I’m backing him to do exactly that.
Women’s SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro
Last year marked the return of the Tahiti Pro to the women’s tour, with Courtney Conlogue taking out the first edition of the event since 2006. As a result there isn’t a lot in the way of a track record for our competitors, but we know who can deal with these kind of waves, and it’s headlined by the two standout surfers this season.
The Favourites
Carissa Moore is looking hard to stop as she searches for her sixth world title this year, and enters this event with five consecutive semi-finals appearances behind her. At this event last year, she failed to make it to that stage, being knocked out in a really disappointing quarterfinal showing, but in the Opening Round she scored 13.84 and was the best surfer in the heat comfortably. Moore has no issues in waves of consequence and is a good tube rider, as she showed with a second place finish at Pipeline earlier this year, so expect her to go deep once again this time around.
Speaking of surfers with no issues in waves of consequence, Tyler Wright is Moore’s biggest threat for this year’s world title and also one of the best chances to take out this event. Wright has made the final in four of the last six events and the semis in another, and has basically locked herself away a spot in the top two, with the potential to steal the first seed from Moore at this event. She’s capable of some quality surfing in this kind of waves – after all, she was the first woman to win at Pipeline just a couple of years ago and finished third there this year, too. That wasn’t demonstrated last year at Teahupo’o when she put together consecutive low scores and was knocked out in the Round of 16, but she’ll be keen to make that one an outlier.
The Next Tier
In an event in which most surfers struggled to put together good scores in what was most of their first contest at Teahupo’o, Tatiana Weston-Webb was one of the few to string together a few solid waves. She just snuck through the Elimination Round after losing the Opening Round in a tight one, but excelled in the quarterfinals with a couple of good waves to knock out Caroline Marks 12.66-4.23. For reference, that was the third biggest total of the event. Weston-Webb has struggled a little this year and is eighth as a result, and barring a win and poor performances by Caitlin Simmers and a couple of others she won’t make the WSL Finals, but based on how she surfed here last year she’s capable of going all the way.
Also putting in a good performance here last year was Vahine Fierro, a local goofy-footer who will again compete in this year’s edition of the event. With most of her opponents struggling last year she capitalised on her experience at the wave, making her way through to the semi-final as one of just two competitors to score double-figure heat totals on multiple occasions. This will be just her fourth entry into a Championship Tour level event, so while she might be out of her depth against these competitors on most waves, that’s not the case at Teahupo’o. She deserves to be seen as a legitimate chance in this event.
One surfer who is certainly not out of her depth in nearly any conditions is Caroline Marks, who has returned to the form she displayed as a prodigious teenager this year to put her hat well and truly in the ring for the world title. She’s been surfing brilliantly of late, making the quarterfinals in each of the last six events, the semis in four of those and the finals in two of them. She didn’t exactly excel here last year, though a score of 6.50 in the Opening Round was relatively high compared to most of her competitors throughout the event and saw her win that heat. She struggled in the quarters, but she’s a high quality surfer, will be on her forehand and will pose a threat at this contest.
The Roughie
Probably unless she wins this event, Steph Gilmore won’t be surfing at the WSL Finals this year. But last year, she also had her back against the ropes, but went on to win the world title as the fifth seed at Trestles, so who knows what she’s capable of. She wasn’t great here last year, scoring 7.50 and 4.16 in her two heats – though the latter of those was enough to win – and she was also knocked out in the Elimination Round at Pipeline earlier this year, so the form on this kind of wave is not really there. But Gilmore is an eight time world champ for a reason. Heavy barrelling lefts haven’t been super prevalent on tour throughout her career, but she’s capable of springing a surprise and potentially giving herself a chance of jumping into the top five right on the final buzzer.
The Verdict
I’m going to go a little against the grain here. Moore and Wright are the best two surfers in the world and will also surf well here, but nobody knows the wave better than Vahine Fierro. She wasn’t exactly putting together monster scores last year, but she was a lot more comfortable on the wave than nearly everybody else. Hopefully we see some improvement in the numbers this year, but scores in the high teens aren’t going to be required to go deep into the contest. Fierro’s home advantage will be massive in this event, and she can record what would be an incredible win in her only contest of the season.
