A pair of surprise results at the VIVO Rio Pro have thrown both the men’s and women’s world rankings on their heads, and with just two events remaining, there are still plenty of potential WSL Finalists, particularly on the men’s side. Jeffrey’s Bay always makes for compulsory viewing and as the penultimate event of the regular season, that’s particularly the case this year. Before we dive into that pivotal event, however, let’s take a closer look at the Rio Pro.
VIVO Rio Pro
The VIVO Rio Pro has, at least on the men’s side, been the domain of the locals in recent years, and that continued this year – though not courtesy of any of the Brazilians most would have been expecting. By the end of the Round of 16, each of Filipe Toledo, Gabriel Medina, Italo Ferreira, Joao Chianca and Caio Ibelli had been eliminated, and when Samuel Pupo and Jadsen Andre were eliminated in the quarterfinals, it left Yago Dora carrying the hopes of the home crowd. He promptly knocked out John John Florence in a low-scoring semi before beating out Ethan Ewing in the final to earn his first ever Championship Tour victory.
The win saw him jump a huge seven spots from 12th into the coveted fifth position, knocking Medina out of the top five and pushing Jack Robinson down to eighth. Elsewhere, Florence moved up a spot to sixth, while Toledo snatched the yellow jersey off Griffin Colapinto.
On the women’s side the event went mostly to script, with Stephanie Gilmore the most notable early elimination. Come the semifinals, it was Carissa Moore and Tyler Wright, as usual, accompanied by the in-form Caroline Marks, and Caitlin Simmers in her first year on tour. Simmers was hugely impressive in knocking out Moore in the semi, and backed it up in the final with a strong win over Wright to knock out the best surfers in the business in back-to-back heats and win her second event of the year, and her career.
Like Dora on the men’s side, that saw Simmers jump up the rankings into fifth, not just knocking Gilmore and Weston-Webb out of a tie for fifth but opening up a big gap on them both. Incredibly, nobody else in the top 13 moved, indicative of the fact that the contest results were very much as expected. The aforementioned changes, however, were significant, meaning Gilmore and Weston-Webb need a big result at the upcoming Corona Open J-Bay to give themselves a chance of making the WSL Finals.
Women’s Corona Open J-Bay
This will be just the fourth time since 2000 that the women have competed at J-Bay, the contest having returned to the tour in 2018 before taking a two-year break during Covid and then returning last year. There have been three different winners in those three events, with Tatiana Weston-Webb last year bucking the trend of regular-footers winning on probably the best right-hander in the world to take out the contest on her backhand. Alongside Caroline Marks, she’ll lead the charge of goofies in with a shot, but again it will be the regulars dominating the list of favourites.
The Favourites
It’s been over three months since Carissa Moore didn’t make the semi-final of an event, so it’s little surprise that she tops this list, as per usual. She has been knocked out at that stage of the past two contests, but she won the previous two and still finds herself atop the world rankings with just two events left to go. She’s got a great record here, too; when it returned to the tour in 2018 she was disappointingly knocked out in the Round of 16, but the next year she bounced back to win it all while last year she made it through to the semi-finals. All signs point to another appearance in the final four for the world title favourite.
A lot of the same plaudits can be handed out to Tyler Wright. She hasn’t made the semis at the last four events like Moore, having been knocked out early three events ago at the Surf Ranch Pro, but that aside she’s made the final at each of the past five contests. Unfortunately the last three of those have resulted in second-place finishes, and had just one gone her way she’d be wearing the yellow jersey at J-Bay, but nonetheless she’s comfortably locked into second and already assured of a spot in the WSL Finals at Trestles. Wright missed out on both the 2018 and 2019 editions of this event through injury, but in her first appearance there last year she quickly showed that her lack of experience surfing in CT events there was no obstacle, making it through to the final where she was defeated by Weston-Webb despite scoring 15.67. Based on her recent results, it would almost be a surprise if she’s not there again in a few days’ time.
Though Moore and Wright are clearly the two women to beat in this year’s title race, Caroline Marks is steadily going about joining them, having also made the semi-final at each of the last four events. That run has yielded two 3rd place finishes, a 2nd and a 1st, taking her into a relatively comfortable 3rd place in the world, not mathematically assured of a spot in the finals but with minimal chance of missing out. She will, of course, have to repeat Weston-Webb’s effort from last year and win on her backhand, but she’s shown plenty of ability here in the past, finishing 3rd in 2019 at the age of just 17 and then 5th last year. Last year notwithstanding, history shows that it’s tough for goofies to win on this haven for regular-footers, but the way Marks is surfing she’s not without a chance.
The Next Tier
Alongside Moore and Weston-Webb, the only other contestant at this year’s J-Bay to have won here before is Steph Gilmore, and the prospect of her doing it again can’t be ruled out. The result in Brazil was an unmitigated disaster for last year’s world champ, with her own early exit made worse by the victory of Simmers, who sat just behind her in the world rankings, and now she’s got her work cut out to make the WSL Finals. As she showed last year, however, with her back against the wall she can be a dangerous competitor, and what better place to do it than J-Bay. Her three results here read 1st, 5th and 3rd, and scores of 14.87 in the Elimination Round and 16.26 in the quarterfinals showed what she’s capable of on this peeling right-hander. A win would put her right back in the frame for the finals, and though she hasn’t yet made a final this year, rule out the eight-time world champ at your own risk.
When Gilmore won her first world title back in 2007, Caitlin Simmers had just turned two years of age. Fast forward 16 years, and she’s looking to knock the eight-time world champ out of contention this year. At the age of 17 Simmers has made a serious splash on the Championship Tour, and at the Rio Pro notched up her second event of the season after she earlier won in Portugal. Unsurprisingly given she is, as I mentioned, 17 (!!), those wins have been interspersed by a few disappointing results, but the form she’s been displaying at her best means that she is a consistent danger. Evidently, since this is her first year on tour, she hasn’t competed at this level at J-Bay before, but based on her results so far this season that’s not likely to concern her too much.
The Roughie
Johanne Defay won’t be competing in the WSL Finals this year having missed the first three contests of the season and performing indifferently since her return, but she’s still capable of having a big say on who does make the top five, and where they finish. The Frenchwoman has been reasonable without being outstanding at this event in the past, finishing 5th at all three of her starts – in a similar vein to how her career has unfolded. But at the age of 29, she’s taken a big step forward over the past year, and though this year hasn’t gone to plan she was one of the best surfers in the world last year, particularly over the back half of the season. That form hasn’t been evident at any point this year, but she’s capable of it, so as far as outsiders go she’s not without a chance.
The Verdict
I’m a bit sick of picking Moore and Wright to win each week, so I’m going to mix it up a little. It was in the latter stages of last year that Steph Gilmore going, and as she did in 2022 she’ll know that she needs a big result here to give herself a shot at making the top five. Gilmore has won here before, and though she isn’t the surfer she once was she’s still capable of being that surfer on her day. After a disappointing result in Brazil, she can bounce back with her first win of the season.
Men’s Corona Open J-Bay
The Corona Open has long been one of the most watchable men’s events on the tour, having taken place all but a handful of years since way back in 1996, when Kelly Slater won here for the first of four times. Other multiple-time winners include Mick Fanning, Joel Parkinson, Jordy Smith and Filipe Toledo, while the past two contests have seen Gabriel Medina become the first goofy to win it in its 21st incarnation, before Ethan Ewing earned his first ever tour win here last year. Those latter two will again be among the chances at this contest, but they’ll have plenty of competition.
The Favourites
Filipe Toledo had a disappointing early exit from this event last year, being knocked out in the Round of 16, but based on how he performed in the prior contests here that was an anomaly. He finished third in 2019, the second most recent time it was run, and won in 2018 and 2017. The long, stretched out walls allow him to do as he pleases, and as perhaps the best surfer in the world with a right-hand canvas at his disposal it’s little surprise that he excels at this break. Oh, did I mention that he’s also the reigning world champ and the current yellow jersey wearer? Toledo is surfing as well as ever in a career which has seen plenty of freakishly good surfing, and at a break which he surfs as well as any he will be hard to stop.
It feels like we’ve been waiting all year for John John Florence to hit his straps, but the last contest was certainly a step in the right direction. After consecutive disappointing results, he surfed really well in Rio, putting together three big scores in excess of 14 before crashing out in the semi. That was the third semi he’s made this year – and the third time he’s been knocked out at that stage. The two-time world champ bumped himself up a spot courtesy of that result, but he’s still outside the top five – albeit only just. Fourth is a long way away, but Yago Dora in fifth is very much in his sights, and if Florence beats the Brazilian here he’ll move past him. Unfortunately it’s been six years since the Hawaiian has competed here on the CT, missing the past three contests through injury, but the last two times he’s been in the event he’s finished 5th and 3rd. With the season winding down and a couple of good results needed to make the WSL Finals, expect one of the best surfers in the world to have steeled himself for a big result.
Sitting in a similar situation to Florence is Gabriel Medina, another multiple-time world champion who finds himself outside the top five with only two events to go. Medina has struggled upon his return from a half-season last year, failing to make it past the Round of 16 in all but two events and making it to the semis just once. He, too, needs a couple of big results to make it back into the top five, from where he lost his spot to Dora and was overtaken by Florence to fall to 7th after his disappointing showing in Brazil. It’s going to be hard for both Medina and Florence to make the top five, but one of them very possibly will, and this contest could decide who. Medina, of course, will be technically disadvantaged by surfing his backhand, but he won here last time he competed in the event (2019) and has never finished lower than 5th in his six attempts. It would be no surprise to see him in the mix.
The Next Tier
After three consecutive finals appearances, Griffin Colapinto copped an early elimination in Brazil and lost the yellow jersey as a result. That was his second Elimination Round exit for the season, but fortunately for him each of the other six contests have resulted in at least a quarterfinal and four of those have ended in a final. The Californian is surfing as well as he ever has by some margin, though he will need to demonstrate his improvement at J-Bay having not made it past the Round of 16 in three attempts. Having said that, there’s no reason he can’t surf well here and he actually did last year, scoring 14.84 in the Opening Round, 15.00 in the Elimination Round, and then copping an interference in the Round of 16 and subsequently only scoring on one wave, which was a 7.27. Those are numbers which on another day could take him deep into this contest, so don’t be surprised to see him pushing for yet another final.
What to make of Jack Robinson. The prodigious Aussie was unequivocally the best surfer in the world to start the year, kicking things off with a 1st, 3rd and 2nd to take a big early lead in the world rankings. Since then, he’s missed one event through injury and been knocked out in the Elimination Round in the other four. It’s an incredible fall from grace, but courtesy of his hot start he’s still just one good result away from jumping back into the top five. Based on his solitary appearance here last season, J-Bay looks a good place to do it. He was arguably the best surfer at J-Bay in 2022, averaging 15.17 per heat and scoring at least that number in four of his five trips into the water en route to a final, which he lost 16.80 to 16.30 to Ethan Ewing. If he surfs at his best he will be very hard to stop; with that form having been absent for so long, however, the main question is whether he can find it.
That final which Robinson lost at J-Bay last year also happened to be Ethan Ewing’s first ever Championship Tour victory, and it was very well-deserved. Aside from an 11.50 in a low-scoring quarterfinal matchup with Jordy Smith, Ewing put up big totals in all his heats including a 17.04 in the semis and a 16.80 in the final. He also enters the contest this season in good form, having snared a second place finish in Brazil to really solidify his spot in the top five. Ewing has established himself as one of the best competitive surfers in the world over the past two years, and should be right in this one.
The Roughie
It hasn’t quite been the year of improvement many expected from Matthew McGillivray, but if ever he was going to break through for an inaugural tour victory, his home break seems like as good a place as any. The South African grew up surfing the best right-hand point break in the world, and showed his wares here last year in an appearance which was cut short by the aforementioned Ewing. McGillivray only made it to the Round of 16, but he put up a 15.33 in the Opening Round and was subsequently knocked out by Ewing despite scoring 14.00. Having only twice made it past the Round of 16 and not made it past a quarterfinal this year, it would be no surprise if this ends up being his best result of the season.
The Verdict
There are plenty of hopes on the men’s side of the draw at this contest, and numerous names aside from the above seven could also claim to be right in the mix. Given he hasn’t made a final all year, John John Florence might not have the best credentials out of that bunch, but – and perhaps this is living in the past – but it feels inevitable that he’ll break through. I’ve probably said that before and it hasn’t come to fruition, but this is a wave which he’s capable of tearing to shreds, and with a spot in the WSL Finals on the line he can snatch his first win of the season at J-Bay.
