It’s been an historic year for women’s surfing. For the first time, the Championship Tour schedule exactly mirrored that of the men, something which resulted in a number of firsts – not least the first ever full women’s contest at Pipeline, and a return to Teahupo’o after 16 years. And after ten events, the result is a top five bookended by two of the most successful surfers in the world, with three women without a world title between them sandwiched in between. Will experience win out, or will we have a new world champion crowned by the contest’s end? Let’s take a look at all the matchups which will take place at the WSL Finals at Trestles, and who we think might be good enough to take it out.
Note: For a refresher on the finals format, take a look here.
Match #1 – Stephanie Gilmore (5) vs Brisa Hennessy (4)
This is a David and Goliath battle if ever there was one. Steph Gilmore, of course, is one of the greatest surfers in history, having won seven world titles throughout the course of her illustrious career – behind only Kelly Slater, and equal with Layne Beachley for the most in women’s surfing. Now aged 34, she hasn’t won a world title since 2018, but has still finished in the top five and won at least one event in every year since then.
Brisa Hennessy, in contrast, is just 22, and still in the infancy of her career. She first competed on the Championship Tour in 2016 at the age of just 16, but it wasn’t until 2019 that she became a regular. In the two seasons since then she finished 11th and 15th, so her 4th-place finish this year is comfortably the best in her career, and never before has she been even nearly this close to a world title.
Hennessy enters the WSL Finals coming off a runner-up finish in the last event of the season at the Outerknown Tahiti Pro, but prior to that she’d struggled since early in the season. Gilmore, in contrast, came home strongly after a poor start to the year. Gilmore has also had success at this break before; in three CT events at the break, she’s won once and finished second twice. Last year she lost in this corresponding matchup against Johanne Defay, but regardless, with her form, experience and previous success at this wave, she’ll be backing herself to get past Hennessy.
Match #2 – Tatiana Weston-Webb (3) vs Winner Match #1
Awaiting the winner of the first matchup is Tatiana Weston-Webb, last year’s runner-up and arguably the in-form surfer in the world going into the finals. After a slow start to the year which saw her just scrape past the mid-season cut line, she came home with a wet sail, making the quarterfinals in four of five events and winning her second contest of the year at the Corona Open J-Bay.
The only goofy-footer in the top five, Weston-Webb struggled when Trestles was a stop on the CT schedule the three times she competed here, failing to ever get past ninth. She’s a far more accomplished surfer now than she was then though, and in the 2021 WSL Finals, she turned that form around in kind. After finishing second at the end of the regular season, she beat Sally Fitzgibbons to earn a spot in the Title Match, in which she went agonisingly close to beating Carissa Moore. She won the first heat with a 15.20 heat total, and though she scored 15.60 and 14.20 in the ensuing two heats, Moore outscored her both times to claim the title. She had a chance to win the world title on her last wave but fell uncharacteristically, an error which will have haunted her over the past year, and she’ll be desperate to make amends for that mistake.
If Weston-Webb comes up against Hennessy, the Brazilian will no doubt have the advantage. If Gilmore makes it through, however, it will likely be a much tougher matchup for her.
Match #3 – Johanne Defay (2) vs Winner Match #2
Despite having finished in the top ten every year since she arrived on the Championship Tour in 2014, Defay hadn’t previously really challenged for a world title, never finishing higher than 4th before this year. An indifferent first half of the year meant that seemed likely to continue in 2022, but a three-event burst in which she won the Roxy Pro G-Land, finished second in Rio and third in El Salvador saw her burst up the world rankings and ultimately land the number two seed.
Her last couple of results to round out the season weren’t ideal, but nonetheless she enters having been one of the best in the world for the last few months and will be tough to beat for whoever makes it through to this matchup. Her performances back when the Swatch Pro Trestles was a regular event were varied; she racked up a couple of ninths, a fifth and a third, while last year she was decent without being spectacular in the finals. She beat Gilmore in a low-scoring first match, before scoring just 6.66 in her next and losing comprehensively to Fitzgibbons.
Defay is certainly a worthy number two seed, but it’s well and truly within the capabilities of the aforementioned surfers – in particular Weston-Webb and Gilmore – to beat her. In fact, Weston-Webb would probably be expected to do her given her recent performances at this wave, while if Gilmore gets this far it will be an ominous sign for anyone she faces.
Title Match – Carissa Moore (1) vs Winner Match #3
By far the biggest challenge whichever of the four other surfers will face en route to a potential world title will come in the Title Match, against the best in the business. Moore, of course, is the winner of five world titles including the last two, and this year made the final in four of ten contests and the semis in another two. At 30 she is still at the peak of her powers, and has had plenty of success at Trestles, too.
She won the Swatch Women’s Pro back in 2015, an event at which she averaged no less than 16.48 per heat, and last year defeated a gallant Weston-Webb in the Title Match over three heats in which she scored 14.06, 17.26 and 16.60. Whoever gets here will have their backs against the wall; Moore is as consistent as it gets and will likely put up big scores in every heat, making her extremely difficult to beat in a best-of-three matchup.
So, who’s going to win?
As mentioned, whoever gets through to the Title Match will have their work cut out. Not only does Moore have the biggest advantage as the number one seed, only having to defeat one opponent, but she’s also the best surfer in the world and, alongside Gilmore, the best of this group at Trestles. Weston-Webb’s performance last year in the Title Match suggests that she might be the toughest to beat for Moore, while if Gilmore makes it all the way through to the Title Match it means that she’ll be on her game – though she might also be fatigued, too. It’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility for somebody else to win, but Moore is going to be incredibly tough to beat.
