This year saw the Championship Tour return to a ten-contest format for the first time in three years after just seven took place in 2021 and none the year before that, a result of our old friend the pandemic. And while plenty has stayed the same over those three years, a lot has changed, too. Two of our top five men in Filipe Toledo and Italo Ferreira have plenty of experience competing for world titles, while for Aussie duo Jack Robinson and Ethan Ewing, this is the first time either of them has even finished in the top five. Those four, along with Kanoa Igarashi, will have the chance to compete for surfing supremacy at one of the most famous waves in the world, Trestles, in the coming days, so let’s take a look at how the event might go down.
Note: For a refresher on the finals format, take a look here.
Match #1 – Kanoa Igarashi (5) vs Italo Ferreira (4)
The match which will kick things off on the men’s side will see Kanoa Igarashi take on Italo Ferreira, with the prize for the winner a matchup against Ethan Ewing. And the two enter the contest each with a mixed bag of form behind them; they have just one finals appearance between them this year and that was almost eight months ago, and over the last four events have endured one Elimination Round exit apiece, alongside two semi-finals and a quarterfinal appearance for Ferreira, and one semi-final and two quarterfinals for Igarashi.
Neither has had a great deal of success at this wave, but Ferreira in particular has struggled. While Igarashi has had just two CT events at Trestles for a 13th and a 5th, Ferreira has failed to make it past 9th in his three attempts, and last year was knocked out in his first WSL Finals Match against compatriot Filipe Toledo. Ferreira is the more dynamic surfer, but Igarashi has the consistency in his manouevres which is so important at Trestles.
As a result, the ball may well be largely in Ferreira’s court. At his best he will be too good for Igarashi, who is more likely to accumulate good-excellent scores. If he performs like he has here in the past, however, he may well be destined for another early exit.
Match #2 – Ethan Ewing (3) vs Winner of Match #1
Waiting for either Igarashi or Ferreira is 24-year-old Aussie Ethan Ewing, who is probably the most improved surfer in the world this year. His talent has been evident for a while, but it hasn’t translated into results even close to what he’s managed this year. In 2017, his first full year on tour, he barely won a heat and finished 34th. After a couple of years off the circuit he returned in 2021 and improved to 15th, but the real leap came this year, when he made the semis in three of the first five events and then won his first ever CT event at the Corona Open J-Bay.
Evidently he’s not guaranteed anything against either Igarashi or Ferreira, but if he can handle the heat he should prove to be a difficult competitor on this wave. He’s only surfed once here at CT level and finished 13th, but he did claim a big scalp – a guy called Joel Parkinson – along the way. His long, swooping turns should be perfectly suited to the drawn out walls of Trestles, and will make him hard to beat.
Match #3 – Jack Robinson (2) vs Winner of Match #2
If Ethan Ewing isn’t the most improved surfer in the world this year, then Jack Robinson is, and the two may well end up competing against one another for a spot in the Title Match. Up until last year, he’d only ever surfed at the CT level at his home break of Margaret River as well as Pipeline. His ability in waves of consequence, however, has always been abundantly clear, and in his first two full years on tour he’s finished 12th and now 2nd. And this year, it wasn’t only on the big, heavy waves where he made his mark.
At Bells Beach, another wave with plenty of space on the walls, he made a semi-final, while he finished second at a somewhat similar wave in J-Bay. His best form came through the middle of the year when he won consecutive contests at first Margaret River and then G-Land, but he’s been reasonable of late, making a final and a quarterfinal in the last four events. On this wave, however, he should be able to find his groove, and he will likely be favourite against whichever of the three above surfers he ends up facing.
Title Match – Filipe Toledo (1) vs Winner of Match #3
This is it – the big one, and the last hurdle our two finalists need to jump to be crowned world champion. And for whoever wins Match #3, that hurdle is a mighty big one. Toledo has been the best surfer all year – albeit having endured a little stumble with two mediocre results to end the season – and was long destined to finish in the box seat to win the world title. Even more important than his form throughout the year, however, is just how good he is at this wave.
The more space and time Toledo has to strut his stuff on a wave, the better he is, and in that regard Trestles is close to the perfect wave for him. And the proof is in the pudding; the last three times the Hurley Pro was held here (2015, 2016 and 2017) he finished third, third and first. Then, last year, he started his run at the WSL Finals in Match #2 as the three seed. He promptly beat Conner Coffin with a total of 16.57, before putting up 15.97 to dispose of Ferreira in Match #2. He ended up losing consecutive heats in the best-of-three Title Match against Medina, but not without putting up a fight; he scored 15.70 and 16.36 in those two heats, but his compatriot was just a little better. With three bites at the cherry to win two heats, if Toledo puts up similar scores this year it will be very tough for anyone to beat him.
So, who’s going to win?
As the number one seed and subsequently heading straight to the Title Match, clearly Toledo is the nominal favourite. His form at this wave, however, makes that even more true. Ewing could potentially make him work for it should he get to the final, though Robinson looms as the biggest danger. Big scores will likely be needed to get past Toledo, and the West Australian is certainly capable of that. It’s the number one seeded Brazilian, however, who deserves favouritism – and comfortably at that.
