With the two replacement events at Newcastle and Narrabeen now done and dusted, the Championship Tour returns to the familiar Margaret River for the fourth leg of the season. One of the most picturesque righthand point breaks on the planet, Margaret River has been a happy hunting ground for regular-footers in recent years, with the last five winners on both the men’s and women’s side of the tour surfing the wave frontside. This year, however, two of the favourites to take out the event will be surfing their backhand – can they buck the trend and get one back for the goofy-footers?
The Favourites
Gabriel Medina has put his hand up as the man to catch on this year’s Championship Tour, finally cashing in on his third consecutive final appearance with a win at Narrabeen. As mentioned, he’ll have history against him as a goofy-footer when he attempts to make it two in a row at Margaret River, but the way he’s surfing it would be no surprise to see him take it out. In the past it hasn’t been his favourite event – he’s never made it past the quarter-finals in six attempts and has three times failed to make it past the Round of 32, but he’s also probably never been surfing as well as he is at this point in time.
His biggest threat at this event has to be John John Florence. Florence has been poor at the last two events after winning at Pipeline back in December, but if ever there was an event for him to recapture his best, it’s the Margaret River Pro. He loves this wave, having won here in 2019 and 2017, while he also made the final back in 2015. Also in his favour is the fact that there is a big swell forecast for the initial days of the waiting period – John John surfs big waves as well as arguably anyone on the Championship Tour. There is plenty pointing towards a Florence victory here, and the only thing that suggests otherwise is his lack of form. If he can overcome that barrier, he’s the one to beat.
Rounding out the top three contenders is the only man within striking distance of Medina in the world rankings at this point in time, Italo Ferreira. Like Florence, Ferreira had a disappointing result at Narrabeen, but prior to that he had finished third and first in the opening two events of the season. Of course, the Brazilian pocket rocket is another goofy-footer, but he’s actually surfed pretty well here in the past. He’s only competed at this event on four occasions, but in 2019 he finished fifth and in 2016 he was a semi-finalist, so he’s a good chance to create history as the first goofy to win at Margaret River.
The Next Tier
Filipe Toledo has endured a slow start to the season, but he’s shown a penchant for this kind of wave before and can surf himself back into some form over the next week. He’s never won here, though he does have a third and a fifth, but he has won twice at a comparable right-hand point break – Jeffrey’s Bay in South Africa. In fact, he’s done some of the best surfing of his life over there, and in potentially similar conditions he has to be seen as a major threat this week.
The same could be said for Jordy Smith. In actuality he has never made it past the quarter-finals at this event, but he’s made it that far most of the times he’s surfed here, with a Round of 16 exit also thrown in there. That trend has been reflected in his surfing so far this season – he’s racked up a fifth-place finish and two ninth-place finishes, suggesting he’s been competitive without being able to take things up a gear later in the competition. It is worth noting, however, that Smith grew up surfing J-Bay and is one of the best ever surfers there, so that should theoretically bode well for this event.
Jack Robinson might be a surprise addition to this tier, but he is legitimately one of the biggest threats at the event. The 21-year-old grew up at Margaret River, and as a teenager made a name for himself as arguably the most talented young surfer in the world. He surfs his home break as well as anyone, and importantly given this week’s forecast, excels in waves of consequence. The bigger the better for Robinson, so huge swell at his home break is the perfect storm for him to break through for an inaugural Championship Tour victory.
The Roughie
Morgan Cibilic has been in scintillating form through the first couple of events on the Australian leg of the Championship Tour. He finished third and fifth at the Newcastle Cup and Narrabeen respectively to go with a 17th at Pipeline back in December, but incredibly there’s been just one man to beat him in all of those events – Gabriel Medina. Twice he’s come up against John John Florence, and twice he’s beaten him easily, first with a score of 17.13 at Newcastle and then with a 15.7 at Narrabeen. He has shown a penchant for putting together huge scores over the past few weeks, and having grown up between Mereweather and Angourie on New South Wales’ Central Coast, he does his best surfing at righthand point breaks.
There are multiple other guys who could put their hands up as chances over the course of this event too. Conner Coffin is coming off a finals appearance at Narrabeen and is always competitive, Kanoa Igarashi has been consistent to start the year, while Griffin Colapinto could surprise after making the semi-finals in Northern Sydney. As is likely to be the case with virtually every event this year, however, it’s Medina, Florence and Ferreira who need to be caught. Having said that, there’s a huge chasing pack ready to do just that.
