Carissa Moore started the season like a house on fire, but at Narrabeen, she was knocked off her proverbial perch by arguably the most prodigiously talented young surfer in the world in Caroline Marks. Marks’ win propelled her into second-place in the Championship Tour standings, and she’ll be looking to close the gap on Moore even further at Margaret River – as will about ten or fifteen others. However, goofy-footers like Marks have typically struggled at this event, and the powerful styles of regular-footers like Moore and Tyler Wright will hold them in good stead over the next week or so.
The Favourites
Despite her semi-final loss at Narrabeen, Moore is still undoubtedly the woman to beat at this event. She has been electric to start the season, and now returns to one of her favourite waves on the tour. Twice she has won at Margaret River, while she’s also saluted at other big, powerful righthand point breaks like Bells (three times) and Jeffrey’s Bay. Having made it to the final four at all three events so far this season she is running away with the yellow jersey, and though Marks was able to make some inroads in Northern Sydney, it wouldn’t be any surprise at all to see the gap between her and the rest widen once again after this event.
One of her biggest threats at the event is Tyler Wright, but the two-time world champion will have to overcome something of a form slump first. Wright appeared primed for a big season after winning at Pipeline in December, but consecutive ninth-place finishes since have seen her drop back to fourth in the world rankings. This, however, could be the ideal time for Wright to turn things around. She’s been one of the best at Margaret River in recent years, making the final four times in five years between 2013 and 2017 prior to the disrupted seasons she has endured since. Like Wright, she is suited by the waves here, and it would be no surprise to see those two go head-to-head in the latter stages of the event.
As mentioned, Caroline Marks will have to overcome history to win here as a goofy-footer, but the 19-year-old is so damn good that it would surprise no one if she were to do just that. The only occasion on which she’s competed here she finished fifth, but it’s worth noting that she was only 17 at that stage. Of course, at 19 she’s not exactly over the hill, but she has accumulated a couple of years’ worth of added experience and there’s no doubt that she’s improved her surfing since. We’d have her a little behind Moore and Wright for favouritism purely because of the fact that she is goofy, but she is still well and truly in the hunt.
The Next Tier
Steph Gilmore has endured a strange start to the season. The seven-time world champion has never really struggled putting together big scores – until the first three events of this season. She’s been consistent, but has struggled to put together many waves scoring in excess of six or seven, and as a result she’s finished in fifth in every event of the season. She hasn’t been bad by any means, but at 33 years of age the indifferent form invariably brings about conversation about whether she’s still able to match it with the best. That conversation, however, doesn’t deserve much airtime just yet. It was only two and a half years ago that she claimed her seventh world title, and she’s still more than capable of taking things up a notch.
In a very similar position is fellow New South Welshwoman Sally Fitzgibbons. Fitzgibbons has a third, a ninth and a fifth to start the season, enough to have her just barely outside of the top five, where she’ll need to finish to earn a spot at the season-ending event at Trestles. At 30 years old she’s one of the more experienced surfers on Tour, and that experience means she knows just what to expect at Margaret River. In fact, she’s been prominent here in recent years – she’s made the semi-finals the last two times the entire event has been held here (bearing in mind it didn’t run in 2020 and was moved to Uluwatu halfway through in 2018), and won it in 2017. She surfs the wave as well as anyone, so it wouldn’t surprise to see her go deep into the tournament.
Another who has had success here in the past is Courtney Conlogue, who won the event back in 2015 and finished second the year after. She comes into this event in good form, having made it through to the semi-finals at the Rip Curl Narrabeen Classic just a couple of short weeks ago. In that semi-final, she lost by the barest of margins to eventual winner Caroline Marks, going down 13.6-13.57. She has been improving at each event this season, having finished ninth at Pipeline and fifth at Newcastle, so if that trend continues then she will be fighting out the finish at Margaret River.
The Roughie
Keely Andrew has for the most part snuck under the radar this season, but she’s been quietly humming along pretty nicely. The 26-year-old from Mooloolaba finished third at Newcastle and fifth at Narrabeen, and at the latter was only knocked out when she matched up against Carissa Moore – hardly a red mark against her name. At Newcastle she was particularly impressive, putting together scores of 14.23 and 13.7 before she was knocked out in the semis. She might not have the runs on the board of some of the other surfers on this list, but she’s surfing well without getting much fanfare and could easily spring a surprise by going deep into this event.
Others who could consider themselves among the chances include Tatiana Weston-Webb – who was a runner-up at Narrabeen – Johanne Defay coming off consecutive fifth-place finishes, and Isabella Nicholls – who had a disappointing early elimination last event after making the final at Newcastle. Undoubtedly, however, the woman to beat is Carissa Moore, whose recent form and past performances at Margaret River hold her in great stead heading into the event.
