There is a clear top four in men’s surfing at the moment, and three of them filled the semi-final positions last week in Newcastle. That trio of Brazilians will again head the list of top hopes heading into the Rip Curl Narrabeen Classic this week, while John John Florence will be looking to bounce back from a shock early exit with a strong performance. But while those four are the favourites, there are a number of others capable of a strong showing – including a wildcard who everyone will be barracking for.
The Favourites
Ferreira was irrepressible from start to finish in Newcastle, and his win saw him handed the yellow jersey. He had a couple of somewhat close results – a 12.8-11.2 Round of 32 win over Jackson Baker and a 14.94-13.27 final win over Medina – but for the most part he advanced through the tournament with consummate ease. His strong backhand was on show throughout, and with an ability to surf both powerfully on both sides of his body and take to the air at will, he will be well-suited by conditions at Narrabeen.
So too will the man he beat in the final at Newcastle in Gabriel Medina. Medina now has back-to-back second place finishes to start the season, having also gone down in the final to John John Florence at Pipeline back in December. Perhaps the biggest positive he will take from Newcastle is that he finished second despite surfing nowhere near his best – it wasn’t until the semi-finals that he really hit his straps, but still he managed to get over the line in each heat up until the final. If he can take it to the next level, which he’s more than capable of doing, look out.
Florence was the biggest surprise at Newcastle. Realistically most probably agree that he is the best surfer in the world when completely injury-free, and after a win at Pipeline to start the season he seemed primed to continue on his merry way in Newcastle. Instead, however, he was knocked out in the Round of 32. The result was not as dire as it seemed though. Out of the 32 competitors who competed that round, only two scored higher than him – unfortunately one of those was Morgan Cibilic, his opponent. Expect a quick bounce back at Narrabeen.
The final man in this leading pack is Filipe Toledo, who will be keen to get a few more points on the board after a somewhat sluggish start to the year. In fairness he made the semi-final at Newcastle, but that result alongside an early exit at Pipeline means he is back in seventh place in the world rankings. He did look good last week though, and won most heats reasonably comfortably until he put in a disappointing showing in the semis. Toledo’s power will come in handy at Narrabeen, and he’ll most likely be there or thereabouts at the business end of the event.
The Next Tier
A couple of old-timers head the list of chasers, chief among them Australian Julian Wilson. Wilson was scratchy at Newcastle, just scraping his way through to the Round of 16 where he was beaten in a low-scoring heat by Adriano de Souza, 8.4-7.1. He’ll need to turn his form around if he wants to compete with the favourites at Narrabeen, but he’s more than able to do just that. It was only three years ago that he finished the season in second place, and though he’s been below his best ever since then and is on the wrong side of 30, it’s still hard to imagine he won’t recapture some decent form soon.
Jordy Smith seems to be regularly mentioned in the same breath as Wilson these days – perhaps unsurprising given they are a similar age, have been competitive for a long time without ever winning a world title, and appear to be on a gradual downslope as they near their mid 30s. Nonetheless, Smith is still a constant threat at many events on the world tour. He does, however, have a clear preference for right-hand point breaks – he has twice won his home event at J-Bay, and has also enjoyed success at Bells and Trestles. The most likely wave at Narrabeen is a left-hander, but if the swell direction suits we could easily be surfing down the beach on a slabby right, and if that’s the case Smith comes right into calculations.
Many expect this to be the year that Kanoa Igarashi takes a significant leap forward, but while he finds himself in fourth early in the season he has only made it to the quarter-finals and the Round of 16 in the two events thus far. His Round of 16 loss in Newcastle, however, could easily have gone the other way – he fell just 0.13 points short of Deivid Silva. At only 23 years of age Igarashi still has plenty of improvement to come, and he has to be considered a chance to make an impression in North Sydney.
The Roughie
Remember that wildcard we mentioned in the intro? It’s Mick Fanning. Fanning hasn’t surfed professionally since he famously advanced through to the finals at the Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach back in 2018 in what was supposed to be his final ever event. Unsurprisingly the fact that he went so close to winning prompted calls for him to hang around on the Championship Tour, but he resisted – until now. Don’t get too excited – as far as we know it’s a one-off, but it will be exciting to see him back out in the water again regardless. A few months short of 40 and having not surfed professionally for three years you would think he would struggle to match it with the likes of Medina and Florence, but most thought the same heading to Bells back in 2018. Maybe it’s an overly romantic notion, but perhaps the savvy veteran has one last trick to pull out of the hat.
