Our pick for the Women’s Rip Curl Narrabeen Classic

Heading into the Championship Tour restart, we had three clear favourites sitting ahead of the rest of the pack. After that event, it’s safe to say that one of those has separated herself into a league of her own. Carissa Moore was dominant in Newcastle, destroying everybody in her path to come away with an unusually easy CT victory. Heading to Narrabeen she is the yellow jersey holder by some margin, but can she continue to extend the gap?

The Favourites

Unsurprisingly, it’s Moore who will head into the Rip Curl Narrabeen Classic as the favourite, and by some margin. She’s the form surfer in the world, and she has shown an ability to perform at a high level in conditions of all kinds – something which will be hugely beneficial at a location which is capable of serving up a variety of different waves. Wright won by at least 3 points in each of her heats at Newcastle, and while she may not do that again, based on that performance she could surf below her best and still go close to winning here.

A chasing pack of three, however, has more than enough talent to turn the tables. Caroline Marks was the best among them at Newcastle; she made it through to the semi-finals, where she was soundly beaten by Moore. Marks showed her prodigious ability in a couple of her heats at that event – she managed a 14.93 in the seeding round and a very impressive 16.26 in the quarter-finals – but let herself down with low scores in a couple of others, including that semi-final. Her best is more than good enough, but she needs to find it more every time she hits the water, no doubt something which will come with experience.

Speaking of which, Steph Gilmore has about as much experience as anybody on tour, and she’s another big chance at Narrabeen. She’s had a middling start to the season, finishing fifth at both events thus far, and was solid without being spectacular in Newy. All three of her scores there landed between 11.4 and 13.5 – a stark contrast to Marks – but the issue with being consistently around that mark is that it won’t be enough to beat the likes of Moore. She’s more than capable of finding another gear though, so don’t rule her out by any means.

Rounding out this chasing group is Tyler Wright, whose performance at Newcastle was a massive disappointment after she began her season with a win at Pipeline back in December. After winning her seeding round heat, Wright was promptly knocked out by Courtney Conlogue after she scored just 10.74 in the Round of 16. Her form prior suggests that come season’s end we will look back at that result as an anomaly, and she’ll be eager to prove that to be the case at Narrabeen.

The Next Tier

As mentioned, Conlogue was the woman to upset Tyler Wright at Newcastle, but she was knocked out the next round by Keely Andrew despite putting together a reasonable heat total of 12.9. That was her highest score of her three heats at that event, and that is perhaps the biggest query surrounding her in an era in which she has so much extremely talented competition. Conlogue rarely surfs poorly and is always around the mark, which makes it hard to rule her out at any event – the question is, if and when she comes up against the likes of Moore and Marks and they invariably put up a heat score of 15+, can she go with them?

Lakey Peterson was a little disappointing in Newcastle, going down without too much of a whimper in the Round of 16. She’s now had two fairly uninspiring results to begin the season, but she’s better than that and with four wins and four other finals appearances in the last two full seasons, she is clearly capable of matching it with the top rung of talent on tour. For the moment it’s simply a matter of finding her form, and it would surprise no one if that happens at Narrabeen. 

Sally Fitzgibbons started the tournament at Newcastle like a house on fire – her score of 14 in the seeding round was the second highest of the round and included the second highest score of the day. That performance tied in nicely with the narrative of her chasing history and attempting to become the first surfer to win four events at Newcastle, but unfortunately she followed it up with a heat total of 9.23 against Keely Andrew in the Round of 16 – not nearly enough to advance. Like the others in this tier she has more than demonstrated her ability to match it with the best, and can’t be dismissed this week.

The Roughies

Isabella Nichols was the surprise packet at Newcastle. The 23-year-old has been hovering around the fringes of the tour for a number of years, and put in the performance of her life last week. Having never previously advanced past the Round of 16 in a CT event, she knocked out Tatiana Weston-Webb in the Round of 16 and then Steph Gilmore in a huge quarter-final upset, before advancing to the final with a win over Keely Andrew. She was no match for Moore in the final and faltered a little on the big stage, but perhaps that was the event that will truly kick-start her career. She’s clearly in form, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see her advance deep into the Narrabeen Classic.

The most common wave at Narrabeen is a long, reeling left, but depending on swell direction the pros may have to navigate just about any kind of wave you can imagine. This, of course, means that versatility will be key, and a strength on one day might just be a weakness the next. Typically versatility is a trait associated with most of the world’s best and it would be a surprise to see somebody not listed above – and even somebody outside of the favourites – salute. As Nichols showed at Newcastle though, a few good waves is all it takes.