For a long time, the result of the Men’s Championship Tour seemed like almost a foregone conclusion even before the bell had rung to begin the first tournament. Between 1992 and 2011, Kelly Slater won what is comfortably a record 11 titles, denying many talented competitors winning as many as they deserved in the process. He was so far ahead of the pack that when he was on song, nobody could compete.
But while he’s still technically a part of the tour, Slater is soon to turn 50 and is no longer a realistic threat to win the world title. As a result, competitive equality has been restored, and we’ve seen six different winners in the last eight years. There’s no doubt that there is an elite crew a little above the rest, but heading into most seasons there are chances aplenty, and 2021 is no different.
John John Florence has already re-established his authority on the tour following an ACL injury which disrupted his 2019 season, taking out the season-opening event at his home break, Pipeline. He’s now the favourite to be crowned world champion for the third time, and it’s easy to see why. Florence won in both 2016 and 2017, and since then hasn’t really had a chance to win another; halfway through 2018 he injured his knee, missing the rest of that season and the next as a result, and 2020, of course, was a throwaway. He’s the best surfer in the world when he’s on his game, and with an ability to compete on breaks of all kinds, he’s the man to catch.
If anyone is going to do that it’s likely to be a Brazilian, and Gabriel Medina tops the list of them. Along with Florence, he’s the only male to win multiple world titles since Kelly’s last back in 2011, and has finished in the top three every year since 2013. Medina is as competitive as anyone on tour and has an unwavering thirst for victory, but he’s also a pretty damn good surfer. He’s arguably as fast and powerful as anybody in the world, and if the last couple of years are anything to go by, seems a virtual lock to take out the Surf Ranch Pro on a yearly basis now that it’s a part of a tour. In a shortened season, the benefit of any win is amplified, and it’s hard to imagine him failing to make it to the season-ending event at Trestles.
Speaking of fast; if the fastest in the world isn’t Medina, it’s probably his countryman Filipe Toledo. Toledo is the epitome of the modern surfer, treating the waves more like a skateboard ramp with which to show off his array of moves. His talent is undeniable, but thus far the 25-year-old has been unable to translate that into a world title. He’s been there or thereabouts, finishing in the top four three times – including the last two seasons – and has won eight CT events; but never the whole thing. Alas, he is still young, and if he can repeat his performance from 2018 and 2019 he’ll get a gig at Trestles. If he does that, he’s more than capable of earning an inaugural title.
It’s perhaps unfair to wait so long to mention Italo Ferreira, given he won the most recent world title, but such is the quality of the names above him on the list. Ferreira is a pocket rocket, standing at just 5’6” or 168cm, but he packs a whole lot of power into that compact body. He’s come from the clouds in the past couple of seasons; after failing to crack the top 15 the two seasons prior, he finished fourth in 2018 and won in 2019, taking out six CT events in that time. He’s shown a particular affinity for the Australian leg of the tour, where he’s won an event in each of the last two seasons, so look out for him over the next few weeks.
Surely there’s an Aussie in here, you’re probably thinking. In fact, there are a couple. Hurley-sponsored Julian Wilson probably tops the list of them, but is the 32-year-old running out of time in his quest for a world title crown? He’s been a constant presence in the top ten for a decade, finishing ninth or higher every year but two since 2011, but never has he been able to translate that into a title. His career is closer to the end than the start, and his 11th place finish in 2019 was a step backwards; prior to that, however, he finished third in successive years, so maybe there’s a little bit of gas left in the talented all-round surfer’s legs.
Compatriot Jack Robinson is at the other end of his career, and appears poised to have his best crack yet at the world’s best. To date he hasn’t been a regular on tour, competing only as a wildcard at his home break of Margaret River and occasionally at Pipeline, but the 23-year-old prodigy seems certain to be a more regular fixture this year. Already he impressed at the season-opener in Hawaii at the end of last year, finishing ninth after being knocked out by Slater. Maybe now he’s ready to take the next step and match it with the best.
Testament to just how congested the men’s standings appear likely to be throughout the course of the year is the names that we haven’t yet mentioned. Remember Jordy Smith? He’s in a similar boat to Julian Wilson, and the two-time runner-up is still more than capable of causing headaches. There’s also a host of young surfers who are primed to show significant improvement; the likes of 23-year-old Kanoa Igarashi, or 22-year-old pair Griffin Colapinto and Ethan Ewing.
It seems inevitable that there’ll be something of a bottleneck at the top of the standings on the men’s tour, and with only nine CT events prior to the new winner-takes-all season-ender at Trestles, each and every wave takes on increased importance. Only five surfers will make it to that final event, and while there are a couple of guys who it’s hard to imagine missing, the final couple of spots could go to any one of the names we’ve mentioned – and a few more. And with the winner there set to be crowned world champion – whether they finished first or fifth – it’s anybody’s game.
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