The first event of the season is upon us, and for the third successive year it will kick off at one of the finest waves on the planet. The Billabong Pipeline Masters is one of the most highly anticipated events of every season wherever it is on the calendar, and this year is no different. Last year, Pipe was the scene of one of the most remarkable results in recent memory when 50-year-old Kelly Slater outlasted a pack predominantly consisting of men half his age, so what are we in store for this year? Let’s take a look at some of the best chances of taking home the coveted Pipe Masters, and earning themselves the yellow jersey for the second tournament of the year.
The Favourites
Kelly Slater might have won here eight times and be the reigning champion, but it’s John John Florence who is the best surfer in the world here at least right now, and potentially of all time. And it’s no great surprise – John John is pretty damn good to start with, so the fact that he grew up with Pipe literally operating as his front yard means he was invariably going to be a very accomplished surfer of the wave. He’s only won here once, in 2021, but he’s also clocked up a pair of runners-up and five other quarterfinal appearances. He was terrific here last year and was only knocked out by a rampaging Seth Moniz, who beat him 17.93-16.67, and it’s likely going to take a similar score to get rid of him in 2023.
If Florence isn’t the best surfer in the world at this break, then Gabriel Medina probably is – and based on recent results, the Brazilian has plenty of claim to the title. He missed the event last year, but prior to that he made the final in three consecutive years, while he did the same in 2014 and 2015. He only won one of those five times, but still – five finals in seven years is nothing to sneeze at. Medina will be desperate to re-establish himself as the best surfer in the world after missing most of last season, and a victory in the first event of the year would be a great way to do it.
The Next Tier
Medina and Florence are the clear standouts, but there are a few talented guys heading the chasing pack. One of them is Italo Ferreira, who has won here before and made it to the semis two of the last three times he’s surfed at Pipe. Last year wasn’t his year as he was knocked out in the Round of 16, but he’ll be hoping to prove that was nothing more than a blip on the radar. One of the most explosive surfers in the world, Ferreira does his best work when he has a lip to smack, but as he’s shown here in the past he’s pretty capable inside the pit as well, and it would be no surprise to see him getting deep into this event.
Alongside Ferreira in the chasing pack is Jack Robinson. Robinson should perform well at Pipeline. He’s long shown his penchant for waves of consequence, and even if his home break of Margaret River isn’t exactly comparable to Pipe, he’s got a Volcom Pipe Pro to his name to prove his wares at this break. Unfortunately, that hasn’t yet translated to Championship Tour events here; in four efforts he’s never made it past the Round of 16, and last year didn’t even get that far. Still, at just 24 he’s still got plenty of time left at the top level, and he’ll turn it around at Pipe at some stage in his career. Why not this year?
As Robinson searches for his first ever Pipeline Masters title, Kelly Slater will be looking for his ninth, and if he’s going to ever win another tournament in his career, Pipe is his best chance to do it. On the face of it Kelly has a lot of reason to be confident; having won eight times here, he’s the most successful Pipe surfer in history by some margin, and he’s also the reigning champion. He is also, however, just about to turn 51, and that win here last year was his first since 2016. Realistically he’s little more than an outside chance, but he proved last year that even in his 50s, he deserves plenty of respect on this wave.
Unlike Slater, Griffin Colapinto hasn’t enjoyed much success here – yet. The 24-year-old from San Clemente has competed in this event on four occasions and been knocked out early on three of them, but the exception in those appearances was a third place finish in 2019 which hinted at his unequivocal talent not just at Pipeline, but more generally. Fast forward to 2023 and he’s now among the best surfers in the world, having finished sixth and seventh in the past couple of years. Last year he would have made it to the WSL Finals were it not for a disappointing last three events, and now entering his mid-20s he will no doubt have plenty of fire in his belly to get there this year. A strong performance at Pipeline would be a great way to start, and he’s more than capable of doing just that.
The Roughie
Seth Moniz has never finished inside the top 10 in a Championship Tour season and has been outside the top 20 in the last two years, but the Oahu local is a different competitor at his home break. Hailing from some pretty good stock, Moniz made it to his first ever CT Final here last year, showcasing his Pipeline pedigree on the way. He was, of course, ultimately defeated by a rampaging Kelly Slater, but along the way he won his Opening Round heat with a score of 16.44, and knocked out John John Florence with 17.93 in the quarterfinals. Moniz might not have ever won a Championship Tour event before, but nobody will want to come against him at this event.
Our Tip
There is no shortage of chances to take out the 2023 Pipeline Masters, with each of the above seven names likely to fancy their chances heading into the event. There is also a notable absentee from the above list in reigning world champion Filipe Toledo, but it’s for good reason – in nine attempts he’s never made it past the quarterfinals here, and hasn’t got past the Round of 16 since 2014. Each of the above names have more reason to be confident than he is heading to Pipe, chief among them Florence and Medina. They are the best two surfers in the world and each of them excels on this wave, and should be considered head and shoulders above the chasing pack. Separating the two is no mean feat, but at his best Florence is so brilliant here that it’s hard to go past him, no matter how good the competition.
