After Carissa Moore started off the season looking every bit the best surfer in the world when winning at Pipeline, it was a less recognised name taking out the second event of the season. Molly Picklum won her first ever CT event at Sunset Beach, lifting herself to equal first in the world rankings in the process. Both her and Moore will wear the yellow jersey in Portugal for what will be just the fourth edition of the women’s MEO Rip Curl Pro, and while they’ll both be hoping to continue their strong starts to the year, they have plenty of competitors looking to knock them out of top spot. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best chances to win the 2023 women’s MEO Rip Curl Pro.
The Favourites
As per usual, Carissa Moore will head into the contest as favourite. Not only is she at short odds for the world title, she’s also got a pretty damn good history at Supertubos. The women’s Championship Tour competitors have only had the pleasure of surfing this barrelling Portuguese break on three occasions; 2010 was the first time, and at the age of 19 Moore averaged an incredible 16.71 across her five heats to waltz to victory. She failed to replicate that achievement in 2019 and 2022, but semi-final appearances on both those occasions suggests she was still feeling fairly comfortable out there. After a strong start to the 2023 season and with the form she has displayed here in the past, she is clearly the woman to beat.
Also as usual, Moore’s number one threat to win this contest might be Tyler Wright. As she attempts to return to world title contention for the first time in years, Wright was the only surfer to make the semi-finals at both Pipeline and Sunset, and though she failed to win either of them, a second and a third place result are enough to see her just marginally behind Moore and Picklum in third place in the world rankings. The powerful Aussie doesn’t have a great deal of experience at Supertubos; last year was the first MEO Rip Curl Pro in which she surfed, and after making her way through to the quarterfinals she was soundly beaten by Moore. However, in the first two events of this season she has looked every bit the competitor who won consecutive world titles in 2016 and 2017, and having made the final four in both contests to date she is a leading contender to get there again.
The Next Tier
After a disappointing start to the season at Pipeline, Caroline Marks was back to her best at Sunset Beach, making her first Championship Tour final since winning the Narrabeen Classic in early 2021. Adding to her credentials at this contest is the fact that in the one time she’s competed here, she won. That was back in 2019, a year in which she won two events at the age of just 17, and her triumph at Supertubos was consummate. Along the way she beat Steph Gilmore, Tatiana Weston-Webb and Lakey Peterson all relatively comfortably, averaging 13.27 per heat in a difficult event to put together big scores. Marks still has the tendency to be a little erratic at times and hasn’t quite found the consistency which will likely one day make her a world champion, but if she finds something near her best in Portugal she’s very much in the mix.
Like Marks, reigning world champion Steph Gilmore didn’t start the year as she would have liked at Pipeline, and though a quarterfinal loss to Wright at the Hurley Pro Sunset Beach wasn’t ideal, it was a step in the right direction. She’ll be looking to continue that trend at Supertubos, and based on her past performances here she’s a good chance to do so. Back in 2010, she competed alongside Wright in the final, while in the two subsequent contests here she’s finished third and fifth. Despite being the reigning world champion, Gilmore doesn’t produce her best surfing nearly as often as she used to. As she showed on Finals Day at Trestles last year, however, when she does, she’s very hard to stop.
While Gilmore’s glittering career is significantly closer to the end than the start, Molly Picklum’s is only just beginning. And though Gilmore’s eight world titles might be a stretch too far, the performance of the 20-year-old Aussie at the Hurley Pro suggests that she is more than capable of one day competing at the pointy end of the season – and perhaps as soon as this year. This year’s MEO Rip Curl Pro will be just her eight contest at the top level, and her first ever in the yellow jersey. Suddenly, there is a substantial amount of hype surrounding her, and she’ll be far more closely watched at Supertubos than she has been in the past. How she deals with the pressure to back up her inaugural CT win remains to be seen, but she’s now demonstrated that she’s got the talent to beat the best.
Over the last few years, Tatiana Weston-Webb has consistently put her hand up as being one of those best surfers in the world, and though she hasn’t started this year as she would have liked, she does enter this event as the reigning champion. Her win at Supertubos last year followed on from a third place at the event in 2019, and saw her put together a number of big scores in relatively trying conditions; most notably a 15.33 heat total in the final against Peterson. That victory was surrounded by four events in which she was knocked out in the Round of 16; so far this year, she’s had one Round of 16 and a quarterfinal exit, but as her win here last year showed, she’s capable of flicking the switch without much of an indication.
The Roughie
Last year was Hawaiian Gabriela Bryan’s first full season on the Championship Tour, and she put in a solid debut showing, finishing ninth in the world rankings. Aged 20, she appears primed to take another step forward in 2023. She’s started the year making it to the quarterfinals at Pipeline and the semi-finals at Sunset, enough to have her sitting in fourth place in the world heading to Supertubos. At Sunset, she snared a massive scalp when she beat, with an ease which defied their respective standing in the world of surfing, Carissa Moore by a score of 15.00-7.73. That demonstrated what she is capable of, and with her confidence seeming to grow by the event, it appears very plausible that she could win her first ever Championship Tour event this year. Why not at Supertubos?
Our Prediction
It’s always hard to go past Carissa Moore, but we’re going to. Tyler Wright is not just knocking on the door, she’s thumping on it, and at some point something’s gotta give. Her form to start the year has been ominous to say the least, and having made the semi-finals in both of the two Hawaiian events it’s hard to see her not doing the same at Supertubos. A win here would see her earn back the yellow jersey which for multiple years she made her own, and with that as just one of her many incentives, she can win her first event of the year and just her third since 2017.
