After the season started in underwhelming fashion at Pipeline, the Championship Tour now heads to Sunset Beach for the Hurley Pro with only a couple of days to catch our breath. Fortunately, after a slow first couple of days of the event window conditions are looking a lot better for this contest than the Billabong Pro. Let’s take a look at the best chances in the men’s version of the event.
The Favourites
John John Florence didn’t quite get off to the start that he would have liked to at the Billabong Pro, losing in the quarterfinals, but he’s got plenty of reason to expect to go a little deeper at Sunset Beach. Though not quite as close to home as Pipeline, Sunset isn’t too far away, so Florence knows the break well. Last year – its first appearance on the tour in nearly two decades – he was knocked out in the Round of 32, but that was only narrowly in a high scoring heat. Florence, when enjoying what is an unfortunately rare run of uninterrupted surfing, is as good as anyone in the world. At home, that’s even more true.
His main contender for the title of best in the business is Gabriel Medina, who didn’t compete here last year but whose surfing has developed to the point that no matter the break, he is a major threat. Medina didn’t start the year exactly how he would have wanted to at a break at which he has been historically dominant, but he should be able to bounce back at Sunset. During his last full season, in 2021, Medina made the final at five of seven events, so it would be a surprise if he isn’t there or thereabouts in this contest.
The record of fellow Brazilian Filipe Toledo at Pipeline is about as stark to that of Medina’s as possible, so he was never expected to start the year the way he finished it last year. The fifth place result the reigning world champ managed last week was actually the equal best finish he’s had in ten attempts at Pipe, so he’s probably ahead of where he could otherwise be at this point. Though he only surfed two heats before being eliminated, Toledo seemed to take a liking to Sunset last year, scoring 16.47 in his first heat before being eliminated despite managing 16.50 in his next. If he scores similarly this year, he will take some beating.
Following his win at Pipeline to start the year, Jack Robinson now well and truly deserves to have his name alongside the above three in the conversation for favouritism not just at this event, but for the world title. After finishing the regular season in second place last year, he did what he’s long been expected to at Pipeline and won the Billabong Pro. He will subsequently wear the yellow jersey at Sunset, where he surfed brilliantly last year. He was knocked out in the quarters by Kanoa Igarashi, but in his four heats averaged a whopping 14.8. Given his form to start the season and his performance here last year, expect him to be right in the mix.
The Next Tier
Italo Ferreira endured an inauspicious start to the 2023 season at Pipe, being bundled out in the Round of 32 at an event at which he has enjoyed some success in the past. But the former world champion is a hard man to keep down, and should bounce back quickly. In his solitary appearance at Sunset Beach he didn’t exactly set the world on fire, putting together a solid first round score before going down 14.40-10.60 to eventual winner Barron Mamiya, but the little man is very capable in waves of consequence, and if the forecast is to be believed that’s what we should get here.
Perhaps last year’s biggest surprise packet was Ethan Ewing, and this contest was when he really began to show his wares. Ewing’s aesthetically pleasing, carving style was on full show on the big, rolling faces of Sunset last year, helping him through to a semi-final which he lost 16.2-15.83 against Igarashi. Over the course of his five heats at that contest, Ewing averaged a huge 15.29 – granted the conditions lent themselves to lots of big scores, but he was well and truly among the best in the water. With another year of experience under his belt, a similar result, if not better, would be no surprise.
The Roughie
Only once in his career has Barron Mamiya made it past the Round of 16 on a Championship Tour event. That occasion was at the 2022 Hurley Pro at this location; and he won. Most of his heats at that event he won easily – with a low-scoring semi against Caio Ibelli the exception – and in the final, in which he could reasonably have been expected to struggle given his lack of experience in anything even resembling a CT final, but he did just the opposite, demolishing Igarashi with a 17.00-12.33. He didn’t give much of a whimper for the rest of the season, but with little in the way of expectation on his shoulder, just maybe he can pull another surprise.
Our Tip
The top tier of the men’s CT is a congested place to be, with each of the first four names listed above able to lay claim to being the best in the world right now. Each of them, too, either has surfing style which should suit Sunset, surfed well here last year, or both, so there’s plenty of reason for them all to be confident. Separating them isn’t easy, but while it’s a small sample size, it’s hard to ignore Toledo’s two appearances in the water here last year. After a solid showing at Pipeline by his standards and with a world title to defend, he’s going to be hard to stop.
